Best Week 5 DraftKings.com DFS NFL GPP & Cash Game Plays
Week 5 NFL is upon us and everyone is looking to cash in on the big money at DraftKings. Every week, we’ll bring you our top DFS NFL picks at each position, separating them into Cash Game and GPP plays. And to keep up with all things PlayPicks, follow us on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
As with any DFS sport, the advice below is relevant for fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than they are in real life due to matchup, price, game flow, etc. This is important when constructing a roster. And if you’re looking for new ways to play DFS, be sure and give BOOM Fantasy and DRAFT a try!
In DFS NFL, predicting game flow can be vital towards success. Teams that are heavily favored and come through with a comfortable win will be far more likely to lean on their running game, while two teams with poor defenses and high-powered offenses could pay off by getting into a shootout. Later in the season, especially, weather will play a key factor in NFL games, so make sure to check the forecast for each Sunday.
In general, GPP plays are high-risk, high-reward prospects that can fizzle out and leave you empty handed. That said, if you want to win the big money, you have to take big chances and sometimes that means fading a safer choice for a risky play with more upside.
Best Week 5 DFS NFL Quarterback Plays
Jay Cutler vs. TEN ($5.2K DraftKings) – GPP
My, how quickly the Jay Cutler-Miami Dolphin love fizzled. After an improbably successful Miami debut, Cutler has regressed mightily, struggling the past two weeks against the not-so-daunting Saints and Jets defenses. Heading into a home matchup against Tennessee this week, the Dolphins’ starting QB has yet another soft defense to throw against, as the Titans are dead last in the league in DVOA against the pass.
If Cutler is going to get it going, it’ll be this week, as the Titans just allowed rookie Deshaun Watson to throw for four touchdowns against them last week. And he needs to if he expects to solidify his position as starting quarterback. Cutler is far too risky for your cash lineup, given his very low floor. But the matchup, coupled with the gravity of the game for Cutler, give him enough upside for tournament consideration.
Aaron Rodgers @ DAL ($8.1K Draftkings) – Cash/GPP
The final game included in the Milly Maker should be a good one, as the Packers head to Dallas for a matchup against the Cowboys. Now, the Boys are perfectly average when it comes to DVOA against the pass, but that’s after facing Carson Palmer, Jared Goff, Trevor Siemian, and Eli Manning. This week they get Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers has looked very good this season, scoring over 20 DK points in all four games this year. He’s thrown for 300 yards in three of those games, with the lone sub-300 yard performance came in a blowout win over the Bears. Meanwhile, Green Bay has an implied total against Dallas of 25.3 points in a game Vegas thinks will be very close. If it indeed is close, it’ll be because of Rodgers. Roster him across the board.
Eli Manning vs. LAC ($6.1K DraftKings) – Cash/GPP
The Giants might be 0-4 on the year, but Eli is back, with consecutive 27+ DK point performances. This week he gets a decent Chargers defense making the trip from the West Coast to New York. That trek always seems to take it out of the visiting team (it’s essentially a 10 a.m. start time, given they typically operate on Pacific time), leaving Manning and the Giants in prime position to earn the victory in a must-win game just five weeks into the season.
While the Chargers are, again, a better than average defense, Manning has an impressive arsenal of weapons, including his undeniable connection with Odell Beckham Jr. and his blossoming connection with rookie Evan Engram. He’s also coming off two very strong road outings. It’s not the perfect storm, but enough is going in Eli’s direction for you to feel confident in his floor and bullish in his ceiling.
Jacoby Brissett vs. SF ($5,600 DraftKings) – GPP
Facing the third worst defense in DVOA against the pass, Jacoby Brissett’s ceiling just got a little bit higher. We saw what he could do against a bad Cleveland defense (27.8 DK points), and have also seen him struggle against good defenses. The Niners do not have a good defense. By that logic, Brissett has definitive upside.
Now, the Niners haven’t allowed much on the ground to opposing quarterbacks, something which Brissett’s fantasy value does rely on. But neither had the Browns, yet Brissett rushed for two scores against them in week 3. Don’t count on multiple rushing scores, but do expect a revamped passing attack against this weak San Francisco defense.
Best Week 5 DFS NFL Running Back Plays
Le’Veon Bell vs. JAX ($9.5 DraftKings) – Cash/GPP
You’re going to be hard-pressed to find a better RB than Bell this week. The Pittsburgh back takes on a Jacksonville defense that is 2nd against wideouts (DK scoring) in 2017, but has given up the second most rushing yards to opponents. Stated simply, the Jags have the right pieces to contain Antonio Brown to some extent. But they don’t have the tools to stop the Steelers ground attack.
Further, Bell is coming off an inspired effort in week 4, rushing a whopping 35 times for 144 yards and two touchdowns against the Baltimore Ravens. I think it’s safe to say he’s back. Fade Bell at your own risk, but I’d recommend doing so in tournament formats only. I think he’s a lock for cash.
Ty Montgomery @ DAL ($7.4K DraftKings) – GPP
Montgomery was forced out of the Packers matchup against Chicago last Thursday due to a rib injury. He’s looking at a questionable tag even with the extra few days of rest, heading into a matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, the third worst defense against the RBs based on DK scoring. What’s more, they’re allowing the third most receiving yards to running backs this season.
The Packers lead back has a knack for assisting Aaron Rodgers move the ball through the air. Through the first three weeks, Montgomery reeled in 18 passes for 129 yards. On the season, his rush-to-reception ratio is 2.5:1. To make this risky play even more appealing, Montgomery has the second most receptions on the Packers squad, and even has more receptions than Jordy Nelson. With that kind of usage and a strong matchup, Montgomery is looking at a high ceiling. Toss in the minuscule ownership this week, and the Green Bay playmaker could set your tournament lineup apart. Be sure and monitor Montgomery’s status on Sunday.
Carlos Hyde @ IND ($6.9K DraftKings) – Cash
Carlos Hyde has been remarkably consistent this season, having scored at least 13.7 DK points each week so far this season. And he’s managed over 20 DK points twice already. This week he gets the soft Colts defense. Last week, the Colts gave up 194 yards on the ground to a Seattle team that has a messy backfield situation. Hyde, who has the sixth most rushing yards in the league, is San Francisco’s greatest offensive weapon, and he complements his solid run game with consistent pass catching, hauling in more than four catches per game on average. The Colts also allowed Seattle’s backfield to pull in a touchdown last week. Everything adds up.
Melvin Gordon @NYG ($6K DraftKings) – GPP
Gordon is coming off a disappointing outing against Philadelphia last week, scoring just 3.9 DK points. But he’s in a great buy-low spot here against a New York Giants defense that ranks 29th in the league in DVOA against the run. With Janoris Jenkins fully back in action for the Giants, the Chargers have one very good reason to establish the run. There’s risk in rostering Gordon. After all, his inclusion in the passing game has waned, with just one reception in the last two weeks, and his rushing attempts are difficult to predict game to game. This makes him a tourney only play, but one with considerable upside.
Best Week 5 DFS NFL Wide Receiver Plays
Jordy Nelson @ DAL ($8.1K DraftKings) – Cash/GPP
Cowboys CB Orlando Scandrick has looked remarkably human this season. I’m not sure Jordy Nelson is the wide receiver he’ll be able to “figure it out” against.
Nelson has been phenomenal this season with three 20+ DK point performances and five touchdown receptions, proving once again that, when healthy, he is an elite fantasy option. In a matchup where Green Bay is expected to score more than 25 points, Rodgers will be throwing a lot, and the fact that Davante Adams is expected to play should ease some of the pressure on Nelson. Roster the Packers lead wideout with confidence in both cash and tournament lineups.
DeVante Parker vs. TEN ($6.6K DraftKings) – GPP
A matchup against the horrible Tennessee pass defense bodes very well for the Dolphins wide receiver, but Parker stands out thanks to his unique connection to Jay Cutler. The two developed a relationship early, with Cutler issuing lofty praise about his wideout, and they’ve been able to make strong progress on the field.
In three weeks, Parker has had no less than eight targets and has scored no fewer than 12.5 DK points a game. This feels like the spot where he blows up. Look to Parker for very good upside against the defense who is dead last in DVOA against WR2.
Eric Decker @ MIA ($4.0K DraftKings) – GPP
Decker’s career decline continues in Tennessee, but there may yet be something to salvage this season. And it could start this week against Miami in a game that shouldn’t be short on scoring.
The Titans head to Miami after an embarrassing loss to Houston. And this week they may have Brandon Weeden starting under center. That doesn’t sound like a recipe for success, but the Dolphins are fourth worst in DVOA against WR2 this season. They’ve also allowed more receiving yards than 12 other teams, even though they’ve only played three games. Decker is a very risky option, but the ownership should be next to nothing, and I’m banking on a score from him this week.
Larry Fitzgerald @ PHI ($6.8K DraftKings) – Cash
Fitzgerald is as safe as they come this week, as he and the Cards head to Philly for a matchup with the Eagles, whose defense is allowing the third most DK points to wide receivers this year (and the most yards).
Since David Johnson’s devastating injury, Fitzgerald has scored two touchdowns while racking up consistent targets, receptions, and yards. Now that DJ isn’t around to take all the red zone looks, Fitzgerald’s floor is on the up and up. Look for him to deliver another solid performance this week against an exploitable secondary.
Best Week 5 DFS NFL Tight End Plays
Jared Cook vs. BAL ($3.9K DraftKings) – Cash/GPP
Cook is a pretty consistent option at TE, scoring between 6.5 and 14.3 DK points per game. Against the defense with the worst DVOA against TEs, he has an opportunity to be a little more than just consistent this week.
The Oakland tight end would have been simply a cash play for me if Derek Carr were able to play against Baltimore this week. However, with Carr out due to injury, EJ Manuel has taken over the reigns, and last week he showed a penchant for giving Cook the ball (he finished the game with eight targets, the most he’s had on the season). Manuel will look to Cook because he is a safe option, but also because Baltimore is ill-equipped to stop him. Be on the lookout for a breakout game for Cook, who stands out amongst a battered Oakland receiving corp.
Hunter Henry @ NYG ($3.8K DraftKings) – GPP
It pains me to roster Hunter Henry, but his matchup with a Giants defense that has allowed five touchdowns to tight ends this year is too good to at least not put him in consideration. So far this season, Henry has displayed the ability to exploit lesser defenses (sorry Philadelphia) and the Giants are about as bad as it gets at stopping tight ends.
To go along with the five touchdowns they’ve given up to tight ends, they’ve also allowed the second most receiving yards to the position. Throw in the Janoris Jenkins coverage on Keenan Allen and it seems like, aside from Melvin Gordon, Henry may be the Chargers best offensive weapon in this matchup. Stay away in cash games, but there’s upside to be had in GPPs.
Best Week 5 DFS NFL DST Plays
Tennessee Titans @ MIA ($3.0K DraftKings) – GPP
My favorite contrarian play on the slate, the Titans face off against a Dolphins team that we thought might be good, but is definitely not good. That said, DFS players will likely flock to the Dolphins offensive players, specifically Cutler, Landry, and Parker, given the Titans atrocious secondary.
But for as bad as Tennessee’s defense is, they’re not terrible against the run (18th DVOA vs. RUSH), and Jay Ajayi hasn’t look good since week two, getting shut down by the Jets and Saints. If Miami is forced to pass, that may not be the most conducive way to avoid the inevitable Jay Cutler turnover. Playing TEN is contingent on your belief in them stopping Ajayi and forcing Adam Gase’s hand. If Cutler can’t throw on his own terms (e.g. the Dolphins fall behind and are forced to throw, can’t get the run going, etc.), a Tennessee pick-six seems like a distinct possibility and a ROI-positive return probable. Remember, defenses don’t have to shut teams out, just create turnovers. And hopefully those turnovers can turn into a DST score.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. JAX ($3,900) – Cash
The Steelers are weak against the run (last in DVOA), but they’re a consistently solid DFS option averaging 11.5 DK points per game. This week they get a Jacksonville offense that is hard to predict, but one that is seeing strong returns from Leonard Fournette. Mike Tomlin realizes that the Jaguars need to run against them to have a shot, given the Steelers solid secondary and Blake Bortles’ knack for turning the ball over.
If they can stop the run, the Steelers should manage a performance in the high-teens as far as DK scoring goes. If they can’t, I still expect them to limit the damage and control possession enough to put away the Jaguars without too much difficulty.
