Week 4 DraftKings.com DFS NFL GPP & Cash Game Plays for October 1, 2017
Week 4 NFL is upon us and everyone is looking to cash in on the big money at DraftKings. Every week, we’ll bring you our top DFS NFL picks at each position, separating them into Cash Game and GPP plays.
Cash game options generally come with less risk and a more stable floor, while the best GPP plays can come with tons of risk and upside. Taking a chance on players with high ceilings and low floors is a good way to separate from a large tournament field.
As with any DFS sport, the advice below is relevant for fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than they are in real life due to matchup, price, game flow, etc. This is important when constructing a roster. And if you’re looking for new ways to play DFS, be sure and give BOOM Fantasy and DRAFT a try!
In DFS NFL, predicting game flow can be vital towards success. Teams that are heavily favored and come through with a comfortable win will be far more likely to lean on their running game, while two teams with poor defenses and high-powered offenses could pay off by getting into a shootout. Later in the season, especially, weather will play a key factor in NFL games, so make sure to check the forecast for each Sunday.
In general, GPP plays are high-risk, high-reward prospects that can fizzle out and leave you empty handed. That said, if you want to win the big money, you have to take big chances and sometimes that means fading a safer choice for a risky play with more upside.
Week 4 DFS NFL Quarterbacks for Cash Games
Tom Brady vs. CAR ($8.0k DraftKings)
You’re welcome to get cute here. I probably won’t in the vast majority of my cash lineups and instead choose to roster Brady. His salary has increased $300 week over week, likely accounting for the great defense of the Panthers through the first two weeks. But that Carolina defense just got eaten alive by Drew Brees and the Saints, and Tom Brady is just the best that ever was and went crazy against the Texans last week. This is an obvious fade for the hardcore contrarians, but keep that play away from your cash game lineup. Brady is the obvious play here.
Trevor Siemian vs. OAK ($5.2k DraftKings)
After a downright bad week 3, DraftKings is once again daring DFS players to roster the inexpensive surprise success from Denver. Yes, even though week 3 wasn’t pretty, Siemian is having a strong season by his standards, and the team around him is a very good one. Oakland just got demolished by Kirk Cousins and Washington, and playing the Broncos at Denver has disastrous potential. There is certainly the possibility that Denver gets into a lead and runs the ball a ton.
So why Siemian? The Raiders have allowed success on the ground this year, but they’ve also allowed just one rushing touchdown. Compare that to the five passing touchdowns they’ve allowed, and I like Siemian’s chances of throwing for multiple TDs. I don’t expect him to mirror Cousins’ performance, but he should be a safe option at home against the Raiders, even if the Broncos go with a run heavy approach. And at his price, I think he should cruise to meeting value.
Carson Wentz @ LAC ($6.6k DraftKings)
There is a definitive shelf at the QB position for the main slate, as Matt Ryan and Tom Brady are the only two players with a price tag over $6,600 ($7,400 and $8,000, respectively). Wentz is the third most expensive option and plays in the Millionaire Maker’s latest slate (so long, Sunday Night Football). So why go here instead of up to Brady for your cash lineup? That’s a really hard argument, but if you’re going to fade Brady, Wentz is a very strong option.
The Eagles QB has been solid thus far this year and, at times, even brilliant. This week he’s up against a Chargers team that got handled by a much better Chiefs team, even allowing Alex Smith to tack on two more TD passes on his MVP campaign. Wentz and Smith are quite similar at the position, but I find Wentz to normally serve as a guy with a higher ceiling with about the same floor (Wentz has rushed for 83 yards through 3 games). I fully expect Wentz to exceed Smith’s output (15.10 DK points) against the Chargers this week.
Week 4 DFS NFL Quarterbacks for GPPs
Tom Brady vs. CAR ($8.0K DraftKings)
Yeah, he leads our top cash options. Guess what? He’s also your best tournament option. There’s enough wiggle room on this slate to get Brady into your tournament lineup while finding value at other positions. Again, you can bet against him. It’s your prerogative. I wouldn’t. Not against a defense that just allowed Drew Brees to score more than 20 DK points on three passing TDs with just 29 attempts.
Eli Manning @ TB ($5.7k DraftKings)
The Giants are 0-3 to start the season, but goodness Eli Manning looked good last week with OBJ back to true form. Manning threw 47 times (this team cannot run), and went for 366 yards and 3 TD. This week he’s up against a Tampa Bay defense that just got trounced by Case Keenum. So, Beckham Jr. is healthy and Manning is heating up, and the Bucs just lost handily against a backup QB. Logically, everything checks out. If you’re not going chalk with Brady, Eli is your best bet.
DeShone Kizer vs. CIN ($5.2k DraftKings)
You won’t feel good about this play, but Kizer could be a sneaky good play that comes with a cheap price tag. For one, Adam Jones is a mess so far and the Bengals defense isn’t really the same without Vontaze Burfict. Another reason, Kizer also threw two touchdowns and rushed for another en route to 25.1 DK points last week, though he was not very efficient (22 of 47, 242 yards). He’s going to turn the ball over. But he’s also going to get you at least 25 rushing yards, with the real possibility of 50+ and a rushing score. That’s what he brings to the table. With the added bonus of his rushing, Kizer can easily hit 5x his salary without going bonkers throwing the ball.
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