Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor Fight Preview & Predictions
It might be the biggest fight of all time. It might break all pay per view records. It is already the highest-wagered boxing match in history, and action at Las Vegas sportsbooks might end up approaching the biggest events in sports.
But one thing is for certain: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is an incredibly lopsided fight.
It’s one of the greatest boxers of all time taking on a novice who has never boxed professionally…or even in the amateur ranks for that matter. Sure, Conor McGregor is a top-tier mixed martial artist, and he’s one of the best strikers in that sport, with a powerful left hand capable of ending anyone’s night in one punch. But the difference between world-class boxing and “great for MMA” boxing is a vast and uncrossable chasm.
The fight does, however, make for some interesting DFS opportunities at BOOM Fantasy, especially if you believe, as I do, that this fight will be perhaps the most one-sided major fight in boxing history.
Let’s take a look at a few stat categories related to punch counts, because that’s where we’ll see the real evidence of this mismatch once it’s over.
More punches thrown in round 1: McGregor
McGregor isn’t likely to sit back on his haunches once the bell rings. In the UFC, he often throws a few big “measuring” strikes to gauge distance and see how his opponent reacts. But here, he’s more likely to try to blitz Mayweather early and surprise him with a big shot before Mayweather can settle into his defensive routine. Which means McGregor will throw more strikes in the round, but he won’t land many of them.
More power punches landed round 1: Mayweather
It’s almost impossible for world-class boxers to hit Mayweather. McGregor is not a world-class boxer, to say the least, and he’s also prone to taking plenty of punches due to his confidence in his chin. McGregor will throw more in the first round, but Mayweather will connect at a far higher percentage.
Total punches landed: Mayweather 180; McGregor 55
Predicting that McGregor will land 55 punches might be a tad generous; the real number could be far lower. The output from both men will depend on how long Mayweather wants to string the fight out; he could decide to string it out until the final bell rather than going for an early kill. If the fight goes to a decision, it’s likely we’ll see Mayweather in the 180-190 punches landed range (on a much higher landing percentage than we’re used to seeing) which is a tad above his career average but would still indicate he coasted just a bit.
Or Mayweather could go for the early knockout, in which case the total punches landed count will be incredibly low and perhaps less than a dozen for McGregor.
Total jabs landed by McGregor: 0-11, 12-19, 20-28, 29+
McGregor’s jab isn’t something he pursues with abandon. Historically, he’s used it more to gauge range; he vastly prefers his left straight to any other punch in his arsenal. Excluding the kind of pawing, distance-judging jabs that aren’t really jabs, I doubt we see much from McGregor in this department. Given the choices at BOOM, I’m going with 20-28.
Total jabs landed by Mayweather: 0-41, 42-60, 61-79, 80+
We’ll likely see a higher output in the jab department from Mayweather than we’re used to, solely because I believe he does want to string the fight along and give fans their money’s worth. With that being the case, he won’t rely as much on his power arsenal and his jab count could easily cross the 100 mark.
Power punches landed by McGregor: 17
This is perhaps being too kind to McGregor. But the reality here is that he’s a novice boxer facing perhaps the greatest defensive pugilist of all time. World-class boxers like Canelo Alvarez and Manny Pacquiao could barely touch Mayweather, which means any big punches McGregor lands will largely be due to luck or indifference on Mayweather’s part.
Power punches landed by Mayweather: 105
I believe we’ll see Mayweather hold back on the power shots early, then turn up the heat around round 7 or so. A huge percentage of these power shots will come in later rounds as Mayweather begins looking for a knockout.
We’ll find out how these predictions pan out when these two meet in Las Vegas on August 26 at the T-Mobile Arena. Until then, you can find action on the above props at BOOM Fantasy. Good luck!
